In this issue: WORK TRENDS DOWNUNDER LOCATIONAL PRIVACY PREDICTION ON THE WEB NAKATIONS And much, much more... ------------------------------------------------------------ ____ ____ ___ _____ ____ ______ ______ * / __ )/ __ \/ | / _/ | / / |/ / | / _/ / / __ / /_/ / /| | / // |/ / /|_/ / /| | / // / / /_/ / _ _/ ___ |_/ // /| / / / / ___ |_/ // /___ /_____/_/ |_/_/ |_/___/_/ |_/_/ /_/_/ |_/___/_____/ *Feeding hungry minds since 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------ Brainmail email issue 57 - November 2009 ------------------------------------------------------------ Brainmail is a free monthly (usually) newsletter dedicated to current and future trends, statistics and other nuggets of information. To subscribe, or unsubscribe, to the world's best cerebral snackfood visit http://brainmail.nowandnext.com/ Tell the whole world about brainmail - forward this to zillions of friends. ------------------------------------------------------------ > Don't Just Sit There According to the epidemiology unit of the Medical Research Council (UK) sitting down could be very bad for you. Only in the last few hundred years has sitting down for 8-12 hours per day become common and an excess of sitting could be linked to outbreaks of obesity, diabetes and heart disease. Maybe in the future we will see health warnings on chairs and sofas warning people to spend more time standing up? Ref: Financial Times (UK) > Climate of Opinion Since 2000, the percentage of people in the US that believe there is no such thing as global warming has doubled to 26%. Meanwhile, the percentage that think global warming is a "very serious problem" has declined from 44% to 36% over the last 12 months. Ref: Financial Times (UK) > Locational Privacy Identity and data theft are so last year. The latest thing to stress out about is locational privacy. The thought here is that our electronic lifestyles (mobiles, GPS, internet searches, e-payments, stored value cards etc) leave data trails and it is now easy to find out where people are. This might not sound like a big deal, but real-time information on where you are is obviously of great interest to burglars. See, for instance, pleaserobme.com. It is also of interest to companies that want to sell you something (ads based on precise location) or to governments with an authoritarian bent. Ref: International Herald Tribune (US) > Future Risks A report by the UK government has concluded that flu and flooding represent bigger risks than terrorism to the UK population. Ref: The Times (UK) > Work Trends 20% of workers would be willing to earn less money in return for more time off work according to a report called Patterns of Work published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The report also notes a near doubling of part-time workers in the Australian workforce over the last 25 years. Ref: The Australian (Aus) > Consumer to Military Innovation The United States Airforce (USAF) recently put in a procurement order for 2,200 Sony PlayStation 3 video-game consoles. The idea is to link them up to create a supercomputer and use the resultant mega-machine for research purposes. There is a long history of military technology finding its way intro consumer markets (e.g. the internet, GPS etc) but this is an example of things moving in the other direction. In a similar vein, an iPhone app called Bullet Flight is being used by snipers in Afghanistan to calculate bullet range and trajectory. Ref: Economist (UK) > Vaccine Patches Vaccinations usually involve needles and some level of pain so the search for pain-free vaccinations is on. Early innovations have included sprays, but researchers in Japan have now invented vaccine patches. There are several types of patch. One design features a series of microscopic needles that dissolve on contact with the skin, thereby releasing their vaccine ingredients. Another design features a plethora of small protrusions, each no larger than several hundred microns, which penetrate the upper levels of the skin to deliver their components whilst not digging down any deeper into the body's pain receptors. Ref: Nikkei Weekly (Japan) > Naked Holidays (Nakations?) Is this a trend? In Germany's Hartz Mountains authorities have opened a walking trail for nudists. Meanwhile, an all-nudist hotel has opened, also in Germany, whilst in France you can now play golf naked near the town of Le Porge. Naked archery, naked scuba diving and naked yoga are also all available from various naked travel specialists. Ref: Sydney Morning Herald (Aus) > My Own Bottle Trend In Japan, as elsewhere, gulping on the go is all the rage and a number of manufacturers are tapping into the trend by offering people re-usable stainless steel or aluminium drink containers that do not generate rubbish. Shipments of stainless steel drink containers have risen by 85% since 2003. Older readers will remember that such things were once called thermos flasks but the difference is the cool factor. These are well-designed products that also tap into the sustainability zeitgeist. Coca-Cola and Pepsi take note. Ref: Nikkei Weekly (Japan). > China Takes Flight In 1999, there were 9,000 Chinese students studying in Australia. By 2009 this figure had risen to 130,000. Meanwhile, the number of Chinese tourists rose from 40,000 in 1999 to 356,000 in 2008. Ref: The Australian (Aus) > Food for Thought Despite predictions that 100% of Americans will be overweight by the year 2048 (Youfa Wang at the John Hopkins Centre for Global Heath) it appears that America is no longer getting fatter. Yes, the land of the whopper still has plenty of obese people (33.8% to be precise) but the number of people that are either overweight or obese (68%) seems to have reached a plateau. Reasons for the shift may include food becoming more expensive, declining prosperity, higher levels of unemployment (time is less valuable hence less need to eat fast food) and social pressure. Ref: Journal of the American Medical Association (US) > Small is the New Big Lightning Source is a print-on-demand division of the Ingram Book Company (US), the biggest book wholesalers in the world. Annual output is 20 million books but the average print run is just 2 copies. Ref: Economist (UK) > Things We Might Say in the Future 1. We were made of meat supported by sticks of calcium 2. The taste of this lab-grown steak just isn't right 3. You could get jobs depending on what was in your head 4. The files used to be kept on individual computers Ref: Wired (UK) ------------------------------------------------------------ : FAST FACTS Of all the people aged over 65 that have ever lived, 50% are alive right now. Ref: New Scientist (UK) By the year 2050, 2 billion more people will achieve middle-class living standards, defined by an annual income of US$6,000-$30,000. Ref: Goldman Sachs (US) Almost 33% of the US workforce will be aged 50+ by the year 2012. Ref: The Economist (UK) In 2008 the internet was responsible for 10% of global GDP. Ref: A Brief History of the Future by Jacques Attali 9% of the US healthcare budget is spent treating obesity. Ref: Harper's (US) A poll in the China People's Daily newspaper has found that 91% of people believe that all rich families in China have political backgrounds. Ref: Financial Times (UK) Women have taken 6 million of the 8 million jobs created since 2000 in the European Union. Ref: The Economist (UK) Sales of unbranded wine (known locally as cleanskins) have doubled in Australia over the last 12 months. Ref: Australian Financial Review (Aus) Asda supermarket is the largest single employer of over-50s in the UK. Ref: The Economist (UK) 35% of US Iraq veterans are thought to suffer from Post Traumatic Stress. Ref: Harper's (US) The world's airlines have lost US$49 billion over the last ten years. Ref: Australian Financial Review (Aus) In the US, women have created twice as many private businesses as men over the last ten years. Ref: The Economist (UK). According to the UN, road traffic will be the third leading cause of death globally by the year 2020. Ref: In Praise of Slow by Carl Honore Deutsche Bank predicts that oil will cost $175 per barrel by 2016. Ref: New Scientist (UK) By 2016, 50% of all academic publications will be in digital form only. Ref: British Library (2004 prediction). Around 6% of books in the US are 'print on demand'. By 2015 this figure is expected to rise to 15%. Ref: The Economist (UK) Revenues for location-based services are forecast to hit US$12.7 billion worldwide by 2014. Ref: Jupiter Research (US) By 2012, 50% of travelling workers will dispense with laptops and notebooks in favour of other electronic devices. Ref: Gartner (US) Obese Americans incur medical bills 42% higher than Americans of normal weight. Ref: The Economist (UK) Sales of e-readers are expected to hit 12 million by the end of 2010. Ref: iSuppli (US) ------------------------------------------------------------ : BOOK OF THE MONTH "Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller" by Jeff Rubin ------------------------------------------------------------ : WEB SIGHT OF THE MONTH A list of prediction sites on the web http://www.google.com/Top/Society/Future/Predictions/ ------------------------------------------------------------ : QUOTE OF THE MONTH "Technology that existed when we were born seems normal, anything that is developed before we turn 35 is exciting, and whatever comes after that is treated with suspicion." - Douglas Adams ------------------------------------------------------------ : PREDICTION OF THE MONTH One day someone will shoot a full-length movie on a mobile phone that will gross more than $100 million worldwide. Ref: James Ricketson. ------------------------------------------------------------ : STILL HUNGRY? You might not know this, but brainmail is put together using all the leftover bits from the What's Next trends report. So if this snack-sized newsletter is leaving you a bit hungry, go to www.nowandnext.com for something more substantial (and that's free too). ---------------------------------------------------- : LOOKING FOR AN INSIGHTFUL AND ENTERTAINING SPEAKER? If you are considering a futurist speaker for your next event ask your speaker agency about Richard Watson or contact him direct via www.nowandnext.com. Richard is the creator of brainmail (along with help from Phil, Matt and occasionally Corrina). Richard's recent speaker clients have included IBM, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Samsung, CSIRO, The Welsh Government Assembly and Procter and Gamble. ----------------------------------------------------- : SMALL PRINT The material appearing in brainmail is sourced from a variety of reliable publications worldwide. However, brainmail cannot guarantee the truthfulness of stories and a degree of commonsense should be applied before quoting or using any of this material in a commercial context. If something appears to be too good to be true it probably is.